US assures Guyana of security support if Trump’s land operations trigger Venezuela attacks

Last Updated on Thursday, 4 December 2025, 22:45 by Writer

As US President Donald Trump mulls over whether to launch land operations in Venezuela to counter what he said are narco-terrorists, authorities say Guyana’s security is guaranteed should the Maduro administration attack the small oil-rich province.

“In the event that something untoward happens, we’re committed to standing shoulder to shoulder with Guyana in defence of your country,” US Ambassador to Guyana Nicole Theriot said in an interview late on Wednesday night.

With the Maduro administration reviving rhetoric about its claim to Guyana’s 160,000 square kilometre Essequibo Region in the midst of US-Venezuela tensions, Theriot reiterated Washington’s support to stave off any military action by Venezuela. “We remain committed to standing beside Guyana to protect your sovereignty,” she said.

Earlier this year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stark warning to the Venezuelan government in repeating military aggression against ExxonMobil’s interest in Guyana’s waters or invading Guyana. 

The American envoy said she was sure that the White House and the Department of War were considering whether Venezuela might attack Guyana should the US military launch operations on Venezuelan soil.

However, she emphasised that Guyana is strategically important to the US. “You’re very, very important to us strategically and you’re very important to us as a partner,” she said. 

The ExxonMobil-led consortium that includes Chevron and China National Overseas Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has put Guyana on course to producing more than one million barrels of crude by the end of the decade, and is a close US ally in countering narcotics and other transnational crimes.

TotalEnergies, along with Petronas and Qatar Energy, is also preparing to explore for oil in shallow waters.

Evan Ellis, Latin America Research Professor at the US Army War College believes that the substantial US military firepower, including missile and anti-air defence systems, in the Caribbean will deter Venezuela from launching military strikes against Guyana.

“Any serious attack is both highly unlikely and would be met with a crushing response given that you have a substantial US force in the region, it’s difficult to imagine any Venezuelan naval capability or any air capability that would not just be quickly eliminated,” he said.

Describing the risk of an attack on Guyana as “moderate”, he says Venezuela will be mindful of losing international credibility and sympathy. Ellis virtually ruled out Maduro “signing his regime’s death warrant” by seriously provoking a neighbouring State as that would shift perceptions of his cries about victimisation and resisting the US.

“If he once again reminds the world that Venezuela is the aggressor on the Essequibo, that would actually shift the political narrative in a direction completely from where he wants to go,” he said.

Ellis says oil industry operations offshore Guyana may be disrupted for a short period until the tension subsides.

At the same time, he believes that substantial US military firepower in the Caribbean will deter Venezuela from deploying swarms of Iranian drones or Iranian-supplied fast boats fitted with Chinese missiles from attacking operations or engaging in underwater sabotage of oil platforms.

For his part, Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali says his administration’s priority is the preservation of Guyana’s sovereignty and safety and security of his country, when asked whether he was worried that Venezuela might opportunistically use conflict with the US to take military action against Guyana. “We are examining every possibility,” he said.

He says Guyana is relying on partnerships with allies such as the US, United Kingdom and France. “As it relates to the safety and security of Guyana, of course I can’t go into details but there is continuous assessment, internal assessment, risk assessment and looking at the evolving situation and the method of approach,” he told AFP. 

Ali says Guyana was also paying attention to the likely mass movement of Venezuelan migrants across the land border into Guyana should there be land strikes in Venezuela, something that Ellis also says is possible. “After a take down of the Cartel Del Los Soles, if there was an increase in violence due to acts of sabotage against refineries and things like that, I think you could see an outflow of migrants that could impact Guyana,” Ellis said.

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has sanctioned Maduro, alleging he is a key figure in the Cartel Del Los Soles (Cartel of the Suns).

A US$50 million reward was subsequently offered by the US for any information leading to his arrest. 

Former UK High Commissioner to Guyana, Greg Quinn does not believe that Venezuela will attack Guyana, but agrees that there can be a new wave of migrants entering Guyana. “There are likely consequences of any possible US attack on Venezuela, not least possible refugees across the border,” he said. There are an estimated 100,000 Venezuelans and Venezuelans of Guyanese descent who have fled the worsening conditions in their homeland and are living and working in Guyana.

Quinn said oil companies should not be worried but cautious. “If I were an oil company I wouldn’t be worried. But I’d make sure my contingency plans were in good order,” he said.