OPINION: The US vs Venezuela – Why should Guyana be worried?

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 November 2025, 21:42 by Writer

by Greg Quinn

The USS Gerald R Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world, and its Carrier Strike Group has joined the Marine Expeditionary Unit already stationed in the southern Caribbean led by the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima. There appear to be some 12 United States Navy offensive ships in the area, making this one of the largest such deployments to the region in decades.

President Trump appears to be serious about taking on what he deems the drug kingpins in the region, personified most obviously, by Maduro in Venezuela. The justification for the deployment, as laid out by the President and his Secretary of Defense/War, Pete Hegseth, has been that they are on a counter-narcotics mission to disrupt the flow of drugs and people into the United States.

Not many buy this explanation and there is a feeling that the real plan is to somehow remove Maduro.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. President Trump is nothing if not unpredictable.

This unpredictability is bad for Guyana and it should be worried about what might happen, because, regardless, Guyana is in a no-win situation. Any action of any sort could destabilise both Guyana and the wider Caribbean region.

Let’s not also forget that the Chinese and Russians are active in the Caribbean and have significant economic investments and political interests there. It is unlikely they will happily let the US act unchallenged in the region. The danger of another proxy war a la Ukraine, this time in America’s backyard as opposed to Europe’s, is not beyond the bounds of possibility.

But such a proxy war would be significantly more dangerous in the Caribbean given how close it is to the United States and how unpredictable Trump might be in response to Chinese and Russian activity there. The reality is that the Administration’s actions (beyond just naval deployments) have clearly been designed to upset and seek the reduction in Chinese (in particular) influence.

For Guyana it is not inconceivable that Trump will demand that it supports his ongoing (or enhanced) military action against Venezuela demanding that Guyana is either ‘with us or against us’. ‘With us’ will ensure ongoing support and economic advantage. Who knows what ‘against us’ will mean.

Supporting Trump causes Guyana two fundamental problems. Firstly, it goes against President Ali’s clear support for a ‘Caribbean Zone of Peace’. Secondly, it will put Guyana at odds with much of the rest of the Caribbean who (with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago) have made clear their opposition to Trump’s actions. This includes Prime Minister Mia Mottley in Barbados whom President Ali is close to and who is touted as a future UN Secretary-General.

Any significant action against Venezuela will likely also cause Guyana broader internal social, economic and political problems. That’s because any amount of instability in Venezuela can have an impact on Guyana. That could, for example, be a result of increased irregular immigration from Venezuela caused by a general economic collapse. Tensions over existing increased immigration from Venezuela already exist. And there is always the possibility that the Venezuelans will seek to do something in Guyana as a result of US action – kicking the weaker friend of the US so to speak.

Even if Maduro is ousted that has the potential to be problematic for Guyana. The opposition in Venezuela is no more pre-disposed to dropping the long-held claim to 2/3rds of Guyana’s territory than Maduro is. Indeed, historically, they have taken an even more hard line.

That leads to another question. Whether or not a more US-friendly regime in Venezuela could lead to the United States being more sympathetic to Venezuela’s view on this? In this respect it is relevant to know the history of this controversy. It was, after all, pressure from the United States (clearly supporting Venezuela) on the United Kingdom (then the colonial power in British Guiana) that gave rise of the agreement which Venezuela has subsequently deemed, without any justification whatsoever, ‘null and void’. The Americans might say publicly this would never happen, but Trump is President and he is focused on what is best for the United States – regardless of what it might have said and promised before.

Guyana does hold some cards however. Exxon and Chevron’s involvement leading Guyana’s oil and gas industry gives it some leverage and influence. This is Exxon’s largest find of a generation – some 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent and counting – and it has spent significant amounts of money developing the field. A stable and secure Guyana is therefore vital to Exxon. It will no doubt be using whatever influence it has on the Trump Administration.

Ultimately this all means Guyana should be worried about anything the United States does. It has the potential to destabilise Venezuela and/or cause problems in the region.

The only thing Guyana can do is plan for all eventualities and hope that good sense prevails in Washington DC. It should also use whatever influence it has with other friends and allies (public and private) to encourage common sense and logic. Although these might be in short supply there…

About the author
Greg Quinn OBE is a former British diplomat who has served in Estonia, Ghana, Belarus, Iraq, Washington DC (seconded to State Department), Kazakhstan, Guyana (as High Commissioner), Suriname (as Ambassador), The Bahamas (as High Commissioner), Canada (as Consul General – Toronto and Calgary), and Antigua and Barbuda (as resident British Commissioner) in addition to stints in London. He now runs his own government relations, business development and crisis management consultancy, Aodhan Consultancy Ltd (www.aodhaninc.co.uk).