OPINION: America and Venezuela: Guyana trapped in the middle

Last Updated on Saturday, 27 September 2025, 12:56 by Writer

By GHK Lall

Several months ago, I articulated some anxieties publicly. This area could become the latest theater for the playing out of what has been called The Great Game. When elephants congregate to a common spot, then rabbits, turtles, and insects are better off keeping themselves at a safe distance. There is an immovable restriction that Guyana must contend with: this country cannot pack up and move. Now earlier uncertainties give way to increasing anxiety. War clouds are gathering. Some may brand that as something else, but war looks likely. Guyanese may feel smug and comfortable. I caution about collateral damage.

The pressure has been ratcheting up. One vehicle that was called a ‘drug boat’, then another. I believe there was a third. What is intensifying between the U.S. and Venezuela is not George H.W. Bush’s grand coalition deployed to the Kuwait desert. There is a different kind of leader in the White House today, one who rolls the dice. Qué será, será! There are some people at the other end of the world who cannot be pleased at developments in this corner. The Chinese have considerable assets in Venezuela. And who can disinterestedly turn their backs on 300 billion barrels, and other economic enticements? If the Chinese show sharp interest, then their allies could follow suit. This regional lake could get mighty crowded in a hurry. My concern is that although Caracas has its back to the wall, it could react in a manner typical of those who find themselves in that position. Spill over. Knock over. Run over. There is the Guyana border, and all that it represents is a line on a map. A disputed line, as everyone knows.

An American rout of Venezuela could unleash a run for any sanctuary. It can be a hostile run, with foul intention premediated. First of all, since international norms are being breached willy-nilly, Guyana could find itself in the unwilling and unprepared condition of a spillover battleground host. If this sounds way out there, I redirect the attention of my fellow Guyanese to the not-so-recent precedents of Cambodia and Laos. I redirect them also to the identity of the respective principal combatants, and the others supporting from behind the scenes. History does repeat itself, only on this occasion, it may be less than about ideology and more about a precious commodity and money. Like I said, 300 billion is 300 billion, and everybody with any stature want a piece of that action.

Here’s another thought. Getting inside of Nicolás Maduro’s head, his thinking could be this way. If I can’t cope with the godfather, then there is always the godson. Unformed. Weak. Unsteady. He has always coveted the millions of acres, and the arrival of copious quantities of oil has only whetted his ambitions for free land. An unwinnable war could provide the perfect cover for incursions into Guyana, and then battening down his hatches with that loyal stealth presence, which is nothing but a well-placed and well-embedded fifth column in Guyana’s heartland. As an FYI for my Guyanese compatriots, it was President Richard Nixon who first used “incursion” instead of invasion when he ordered Americans into the territory of South Vietnam’s neighbors to continue the battles.

My hope is that Guyanese could find it in themselves to cast aside partisanship and get a firmer appreciation of the inconvenient position in which Guyana finds itself. And the tempting invitation that Guyana is, should there be hostilities between America and Venezuela. From the perspective of the Venezuelan caudillo, that old Cosa Nostra maxim has much appeal for him. The friend of my enemy is my enemy. Indeed, there is an American security blanket for Guyana, but how much infiltrating and undermining and pounding can Guyana absorb? Guyana is so few, that with minimal outlay, there could be still fewer of it left. There are some monumental blind spots, through which unimaginable damage can be inflicted on the nerve centers of this country. As much as I am with America, I think that Guyana has tilted too far, and to the extent that it cannot recover, even it was so inclined. It is what now makes it a full-fledged partner, a helpless pawn, and a total dependent not having so much as a say in its own destiny. It is the price of power, the price of shaky and selective prosperity.

Meanwhile, the boats have been repositioned, the mind steeled in Washington. There may be neither a sufficiency of human obstacles nor physical ones. But, even if only a contest of two, Guyana is still trapped in that worst of place: between two gigantic pincers. Great Game or mini-Great Game, this country sits on the hottest of hot seats.