OPINION: Venezuela’s elections: Maduro did what he knows best

Last Updated on Tuesday, 30 July 2024, 17:14 by Writer

by GHK Lall

After all the hype, all the calculations and projections, there is the Venezuelan elections result. After all the rhetoric, there is reality. Incumbent President Nicholás Maduro is the winner. It fulfills a mantra that I have learned the hard way, forced to factor into my considerations: expect the expected. Control of the election’s machinery, coziness (possibly conspiracies) with the Elections Council, all have their place, their inestimable value when they are needed to run interference and put on a rescue act. In three words: Maduro, the winner. Expect the expected.

The man gave every clue, provided every cue, made his intentions clear, by hook or crook. Whichever device it was, the Elections people declared him the winner. They are his own handpicked people. Surely, the world didn’t expect anything else… I hoped, many Venezuelans hoped, but the tentacles of the man Maduro were everywhere, and they bite deeply, exercise close control. Twenty-five years is a long time to wait for change from the Bolivarian revolution; often they are not enough, especially when all the elements are lined up, battle tested, refined for one preset, predictable outcome. A farce for an election, and a bigger farce for the result. The Americans say that they are concerned. It is a word loaded with meaning and this is shaping up to be an alarming situation right in Guyana’s backyard. As old as he is, and obscure and possibly politically impotent as he was, it would have been a sign of thawing and progress if Edmundo Gonzalez had edged over the line. I think he did and by many comfortable lengths. Reality check and mental check: there is the political science of university lecture halls, and the standard math of the respected textbooks. Then there is the science of real politics in the gritty streets and barrios, and the peculiar counting systems favored by those with their hands on all the levers of power that determine the outcome of such things. In aggregate, it is the kind of confluence of circumstances (events) that would make a saint sin, even an archbishop deliver a solid wallop with his feet at the stained glass in a cathedral. Nicolás Maduro has proved himself to be neither saint nor archbishop.

So, why not a national election result to match the pure perverseness of a fine political operator and survivor of the caliber of Nicholás Maduro? Who has more to lose than he? Who would not give himself an opportunity to continue and carry on with a mandate from the people (to stretch matters) with all the self-glorifying visions running around in his head? So, why should he not do everything to win by any means that the situation required? There it is: hook or crook again. Guyanese don’t have to look at Caracas and the battleground that it will become in the weeks and months ahead. All they need to do is start right here and look right here in the local hood. Georgetown and Elections 2020. Whether surveyed from the vantage point of the wreckage of 14 months in the aftermath of the December 2018 no confidence development, or the long five months that followed in the wake of the post-March 2020 polls, the evidence is there. No court is necessary; the court of public opinion, and the adjudication of basic arithmetic, is enough to hold sway. In sum, there are the fundamentals of 1 and 1 equals 2, and not 11. It was that old regular that used to be called ‘Mental,’ in the vintage primary schools. What Guyanese were treated to was the modern marvel of spreadsheets. From all indications, I think that this was what Dr. Maduro pulled off in Venezuela. He must have learned that one from Guyana and Granger.

Look at Guyanese today. Not a day passes when they do not recall the traumas that ensued. Or are reminded. Guyanese have still not recovered from those assaults on intellect and conscience, the national character too. I don’t think that that will pass, be forgotten soon. This is where Venezuelans are sure to be in the next several months, most likely the long years to come. We have our own pitched battles, old ones to be mythologized, new ones to be anticipated. The plight of the people? In the time-honored ways of volatile and versatile politicians, that’s their business. Venezuelans are in for a rough time, but there is always the call of neighboring territories. Rather selfishly, I am focused on the impacts that develop here. The Yanks will apply their sanctions, but Maduro has his assets and allies, so he will maneuver, ride the tides, as he has done so well. One of his escape valves is on this side of the Cuyuni River. This is not comforting. Not with more to rush here. Not with whatever else (machinery and manpower) that could lumber across the border. Guyana’s world suddenly got cramped. This is less about big power politics and Great Games. It is about survival.