Assault rifles likely link to Venezuela plot to seize Essequibo – defence expert

A Guyanese defence and security expert on Tuesday issued a serious warning that the recent seizure of a cache AK-47 assault rifles in two arms busts could be a sign of a broader plan by the Venezuelan government to infiltrate Guyana and create conditions for seizing the Essequibo Region.

The expert, who is a former high-ranking security sector officer, said the Guyana government should be worried about how many weapons might have entered the country undetected in advance of this year-end’s decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award of the land boundary with Venezuela.

“As the ICJ ruling looms, Venezuela, which already says it will not recognize the ruling, can likely engage in hybrid warfare just below the threshold of the kind of kinetic actions associated with an invasion to seize Essequibo. The smuggling of weapons can be a phase of that strategy.

It is no stretch of the imagination that they already have sleepers here who are awaiting the appropriate moment to be activated to sow chaos and disorder,” the expert told Demerara Waves Online News on strict condition of anonymity.

That perspective takes into consideration last year’s coordinated bombing of a Guyana Power and Light sub-station infrastructure and a nearby police station, and the separate bombing of a gas station that killed a child, injured others and rattled nearby buildings.

A number of Guyana Defence Force (GDF) patrols have been shot at by unidentified persons on the Venezuelan side of the bordering Cuyuni River in recent months. At least two GDF soldiers had been injured.

President Irfaan Ali declined to discuss possible motives behind the arms cache busts.

He said there was an “ongoing police investigation” and that foreign assistance was being sought as part of that probe. “This is a serious matter in which Regional and International partners will be part of a comprehensive investigation looking at the entire criminal chain,” Dr Ali said.

But the defence expert also advised Guyana against relying on support from the United States (US) to repel Venezuelans.

Citing the US positions on Ukraine, Palestine, and Lebanon, the Western-trained and experienced officer in specific types of conflict said the Guyana government must not be lulled into a false sense of security that we will be under the protective umbrella of the USA.

“Given the transactional nature of (US President) Donald Trump, he would easily countenance a Venezuela land grab of Guyana as a fait accompli and tell the Ali government to suck it up,” the expert said.

The defence expert said that in analysing possible reasons for the sudden appearance of 33 AK-47 assault rifles, Guyanese should never lose sight of the hidden hand of the Venezuelan government in the background.

In that context, the expert advised that such a scenario must influence Guyana’s response efforts from the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to the defensive posture.

Of particular concern to the specialist, who has studied defence in a number of countries, is the presence of large numbers of able-bodied Venezuelan males around Guyana, already providing a brigade strength of over 5000 that would not require a large-scale invasion.

“These men and women have already inserted themselves into the fabric of Guyanese society from seemingly innocuous areas like garbage collection and performing security duties, to other areas that have given them a full appreciation of the lay of the land, in a manner of speaking,” the source said.

Acknowledging that several persons might consider his analysis a far-fetched theory, he said such plausible explanation must be done in wargaming the kinds of scenarios that Guyana, as a nation must be prepared for.

With the majority of Venezuelans working menial jobs, he said “It is incumbent on the government to sensitise the citizenry and not allow our desire for cheap labour to becloud our sense of security consciousness.”

Though the Guyanese defence and security expert said United States War College Professor Evan Ellis offered “several salient points” about the motives behind the smuggling of AK-47 rifles into Guyana, he said those were primarily through an American lens.

“Any examination of this issue through a Guyanese lens will always have to factor in that existential threat this country has faced from its birth as an independent nation – the spurious revanchist Venezuelan claim to our territory,” the Guyanese defence and security expert said.

Professor Ellis believed that the guns were being moved into Guyana by gang members — probably from Venezuela, Brazil or Colombia — who were trying to flee US pressure in those countries.

He did not think that interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez or her brother, Jorge, who is President of the National Assembly, would risk damaging US relations by attacking Guyana.