OPINION: Guyana: What A Difference A Decade Makes

Last Updated on Monday, 18 November 2024, 7:57 by Denis Chabrol

By Greg Quinn

Guyana in 2015

I first arrived in Guyana in February 2015 – the politics were fractious (what’s changed some might say), my predecessor had been called a pariah, and oil had yet to be discovered (and, it must be remembered, was not a sure thing – Shell had found the risks so great they left in 2014).  I left (for the first time) in August 2020, came back between October and December 2020, and then made a final ‘official’ appearance in January 2024.  I’m a regular visitor now.

Acknowledging that our bilateral relationship in 2015 was difficult, in my credentials ceremony I told then President Ramotar that ‘friends often differ’.  That is still a good mantra to live by.

What has happened over the last decade has been nothing short of spectacular.  What was the second poorest country in the region (after Haiti) has now become the country with the fastest growth rates in the world.  All driven by unprecedented oil and gas discoveries – currently some 11bn barrels of oil equivalent.  Discoveries that will provide the Government and the people of Guyana with the opportunity and resources to change their lives fundamentally.

Some hark back to the ‘good old days’ before oil in Guyana.  Much like some in the UK hark back in the same way (meanwhile my father – 84 years old this year – likes to remind me of the ‘good old days’ of bad sanitation, outside toilets, disease, dangerous working conditions and poor health facilities).  A rose-tinted view of the past is often misplaced.

To be frank Guyana in 2015 was stagnating.  Economic growth was sluggish, standards of living were poor, and opportunities even less.  Some 80% of those with tertiary degrees left the country and never came back.  More Guyanese citizens were living in the US and Canada than in Guyana.  The world in 2024 is somewhat different.

Guyana Now

The evidence of that is obvious to anyone who looks at the skyline of Georgetown, but also anyone who travels outside the capital and sees the roads, stadiums, schools and hospitals (amongst other things) that are being built the length and breadth of Guyana.  There are more jobs than applicants and some sectors (especially hospitality) find it hard to recruit.  People jump from one job to another earning amounts that were undreamt of in 2015.  What people can do, where they can go, and how they get there has changed beyond all recognition.  In 2015 you basically had to fly via Barbados or Port of Spain to get anywhere, now you have British Airways, American Airways, JetBlue, United and countless others flying to and from Guyana.

Another obvious sign of wealth is the explosion in the number of cars on the roads of Guyana.  Despite huge investment in infrastructure driving anywhere in Georgetown (especially during rush hour) takes significantly longer than it used to.  Making matters worse is the increasing and obvious level of disobedience of basic road rules by drivers.  When I first arrived the usual culprits for bad and dangerous driving tended to be pitbull minibuses.  Now everyone seems to be at it.  Aided and abetted by a Police Force which seems increasingly incapable or unwilling to enforce the basic rules of the road – leading to increased deaths, delays and frustrations on the roads.

Despite the arguments and the questions around money trickling down to the average man and woman on the street I continue to believe that the money which has flowed from oil and gas has been of huge benefit to Guyana.

That infrastructure, those hospitals, those schools etc etc would not have happened without money from oil and gas.  Or if they were built many probably would have been using money from places such as China which, whilst appearing cheap and good value in the short term, would (as has been seen in other countries) have become a long-term albatross around Guyana’s neck.  If nothing else oil and gas has saved Guyana from a dependence on others.

Challenges Remain

That doesn’t mean all is rosy in the Guyana garden.  There are still pockets of society which don’t appear to have benefited from oil wealth.  Some parts of society are still impoverished.  The cost of living has jumped as goods and services have become more expensive, and the lack of people means that getting workers across all sectors of the economy is increasingly difficult.  This means there needs to be a nationwide conversation about immigration as the reality is there simply aren’t enough workers to fill every job in Guyana.

An anecdote on this from the hospitality industry which is finding it difficult to recruit staff.  A new hotel opened in Georgetown.  Desperate for staff it reverted to visiting their rivals and literally poaching them there and then.  Not good practice.

To be fair the Government is trying to alleviate the problems.  One-off cash grants, support to parents and the elderly, a proposal to half the cost of electricity, removing tuition fees, and a desire to make Guyana the breadbasket of the Caribbean, reducing the food import bill in the process, are more than commendable initiatives.  But some of these things cannot be delivered overnight and a frustrated population moving into an election year is not a positive development for the Government.

What Does the Future Hold?

I do not have time for the naysayers – I am by definition an optimist (I’d never have gotten through 2020 if I wasn’t).  Yes there are problems with issues such as accountability across the public and private sectors.  But I do not believe that Guyana risks turning into Equatorial Guinea.  Oil and gas is a blessing, not a curse.

Yes the world is moving to other sources of energy to address the issue of climate change.  But the reality is oil and gas is going to be here for a long time.  This is not just about energy and power.  It is about providing the things that allow us to live safe and comfortable lives – be that plastics or medicines or whatever.  The idea that we can turn oil and gas off overnight and keep living as we do is, sadly, a delusion.

So Guyana must make the most of this gift.  That means ensuring oil and gas production can continue for as long as possible.  That may mean reducing the amount produced now to allow the oil fields to be managed in a way that produces more over a longer period of time.  It also means making more use of the associated gas, not just to reinject it into fields but for power (as at Wales) and to allow the production of products such as cooking gas, hydrogen for fertiliser, and synthetic fuel (such as diesel) to both reduce the import bill and provide ‘cleaner’, if not totally ‘clean’ fuel.

How the Government maximises its oil and gas return over the long term is of paramount importance.  There is a need to address the perceptions of every citizen not benefiting.  They need to use oil and gas wealth to continue to build the schools, hospitals and social security system which will improve quality of life for the population.  They need to address any corruption.

Not everything is for the Government to do however.  Private business has a role to play in ensuring benefits filter to everyone and that they do not get involved in illegal or inappropriate practices.  Fair competition drives economic prosperity and good quality projects – not bad projects poorly delivered when the opposite is true.

NGOs have a role to play in holding Government and the private sector to account.  But they are not there to continually try and stifle development.  Guyana deserves to benefit from oil and gas.  It has not caused the climate change problem – indeed it is probably negative net zero.  To suggest it should not develop its patrimony is both patronising and unfair.  Better to address attention to the countries in the West (and East) who are the major polluters.

Conclusion

The Guyana of 2024 is much changed from the Guyana I first saw in 2015.  I don’t under-play the challenges of integrating and dealing with a large influx of wealth.  But I do believe Guyana is in a better place than it was.  There is more opportunity.  There is more money.  There are more chances for young people.  Health services are better.  Education services are better.  Overall quality of life is better.  That has to be a good thing.

A (non-Guyanese) friend once asked me why the Brits always moaned and complained about things when, compared to his country, we had a working health service, good schools, good infrastructure – all things people in his home dreamed of.  He wondered where this pessimistic British view of their lot came from.  I told him we just liked to moan.

I see similar traits developing in Guyana where some focus on the negative.  That is the wrong approach in my view.  Maybe Guyana and the United Kingdom aren’t that different after all …

About the author

Greg Quinn OBE is a former British diplomat who was High Commissioner to Guyana and Non-Resident Ambassador to Suriname from 2015-2020.  He now runs Aodhan Consultancy.  This piece is extracted from the 7th edition of Oil Dorado, edited by John Mair, which will be published in December 2024