Guyana can withstand oil price decline if US sells Venezuela’s crude

Last Updated on Wednesday, 7 January 2026, 23:16 by Writer

Guyana, already grappling with falling global oil prices, could see a further but gradual decline in the price if the United States (US) puts more Venezuelan oil on the market, but higher volumes from more Stabroek Block projects will compensate for the slump, business analyst and civil society activist Christopher Ram said on Wednesday.

“For Guyana, however, the fall in price will be partly if not fully compensated by the increase in volume,” he told Demerara Waves Online News.

ExxonMobil, the operator in the Stabroek Block, is producing an estimated 900,000 barrels per day from its Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara.

The company, which is in a joint venture with China National Overseas Oil Corporation and Chevron, is aiming for about 1.7 million barrels per day when Uaru, Whiptail, Longtail and Hammerhead projects come on stream between now and 2029.

He said Venezuela’s heavy oil, which adversely impacts on its production and refining, would not pose a competitive threat to Guyana’s light sweet crude.

Looking ahead, he said the price could drop to early US$50, reflecting a further 12 to 15 percent decline due to the US’ planned sale of Venezuelan oil.

Mr Ram, who authors an analysis of Guyana’s annual budgets and pays close attention to financial and economic matters, said if the US sticks to its plan to take Venezuela’s oil and market it, there would not be a “dramatic” price increase. “In any case the market has a surfeit of oil. I don’t see it making a helluva lot of difference but it will be incremental because we have a surplus of oil for 2026, possibly to the end of 2027.”

Brent crude closed Wednesday at US$59.96 per barrel.

Guyana had calculated that crude would have last year fetched an average price of US$71.90 per barrel but the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the price ended at an annual average of US$69 per barrel when adjusted for inflation because supplies exceeded demand.

The EIA also said that on a monthly average basis, the price of Brent crude oil declined from a high of $79 per barrel in January to a low of $63 per barrel in December, which was the lowest monthly average price since early 2021.

International relations professor, Dr. Mark Kirton said at the weekend that the US’ plans for Venezuela’s oil could hurt Guyana. “If there is short term production, even in the medium term, production increases in Venezuela. There could very likely be competition for Guyana and remember if the oil production increases, it will enter a market already with oversupply which may bring down the cost of oil and impact the revenues that are currently accruing to Guyana,” he said on a Caribbean Tea discussion titled “The Capture of Maduro: The Daring Invasion and Venezuela’s Uncertain Aftermath.”

Analysts elsewhere say oil companies will have to consider several factors before taking up US President Donald Trump’s return to Venezuela and pump more oil to help revive the South American nation’s sagging economy. Among the considerations, analysts say, will be political stability and aged infrastructure that will take some time to rehabilitate.

Meanwhile, Mr Ram and several other civil society activists picketed near police barriers on Young Street, Kingston to vent their anger at the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, during an armed assault on several Venezuelan military installations.

They were arraigned in a New York court for drug offences, narco-terrorism and the possession of guns.

In response to the planned protest, police cordoned off streets around the US Embassy, allowing only pedestrians to traverse the area.

In the end, there were only about six civil society activists who spoke with the media before rolling up their placards and leaving.

Mr Ram called on the US to respect international law, saying the US invaded Venezuela and killed innocent persons. “It’s simple as that. That’s all we are asking,” he said.

Ms Vanda Radzik, describing Mr Trump as an “illegal and disgraceful” leader, said the US military action has “turned the clock backward” on all of the work done by the “progressive” Caribbean in safeguarding the region as a zone of peace.

She joined global calls in demanding evidence that Mr Maduro is a narco-trafficker and small vessels that were destroyed were actually ferrying drugs to the US.

“You cannot just go in there and abduct and kidnap people – the President of another sovereign country – because the reason is oil just as it was in Iraq, just as it is in Guyana. You think that they care about me and you and Guyana and our this and our that and our border? It is only to protect American interest which is called O-I-L,” she said.