OPINION: Referendum postmortem: low turnout could mean Maduro is on his way out

Last Updated on Tuesday, 5 December 2023, 8:14 by Denis Chabrol

by GHK Lall

The much-watched Venezuelan Referendum was plagued by low turnout, which means a hell of a big turndown.  I repeat for emphasis: a small turnout confirms a big turnup of the nose by neighboring voters at Venezuelan strongman, Nicolas Maduro.  After all of his blubber and bluster, he ain’t look so big, and so bad, now.  But now that he has backed himself into a tight corner, I ponder what next is going to come out from that overworked skull of his.  But first, some mop up work must be done to set the table right.

The Venezuelan Opposition said that the turnout was as low as 11 percent, an incredibly dismal figure.  What does this say if Maduro were to call an election, a clean one that gives his political opponents a fair shake?  Another question that swirls is this: having heard from his ambassadors did he pull in his horns and change course in midstream?  Meaning that he now has to regroup and reimage himself.  Further, having felt the temperature of the international media and the international community (such as it was), did the realization come that the horse he was riding was going to finish last?  The Russians and Iranians may have been stoking some embers in Caracas, but the Chinese should have put in a word of caution, considering that it has chestnuts in the fire here and over there.  In other words, was Senor Maduro forced to smooth his warped senses in a jiffy, and arrive at the belated conclusion that he had better call of his dogs and warhorses, since the deck was loaded against him?  I think sanity prevailed, so it is back to the drawing board of schemes and plots.  In all of this, no Guyanese should forget one thing.  It is that 11 percent turnout, low turnout, or whatever the turnout was, El Jefe did walk away with an edge in the more Venezuelans voting in the affirmative, viz., Essequibo is theirs.  So, small or large, he does have carte blanche, and there could be others warmongers in his inner circle, like himself, who are bent on running across the border.  It is a sobering thought for all Guyanese to consider, while they celebrate.

By the way, after all those frenzies, all those crowds, what happened to them?  Where did they disappear to on referendum day, December 3rd?  Christmas celebrations do not go into top gear so early over there, and certainly not with the national economy sliding down to the bottom of the precipice.  If the Opposition’s 11 percent turnout has any weight about it, then very few are ready to go to war on behalf of Nicolas Maduro.  Quiet, under the radar, infiltration and landgrab as has been the norm, yes (there I go again); but full-fledged barreling across the border, not a chance.  Could it be that Maduro, having seen the writing on the wall, like the Babylonian Belshazzar, decided that discretion was the better part of his recent stormy anti-imperialist valor?  What it is that is holding in check temporarily his oil greed, and covetousness for Guyana’s natural resources?

Thinking of all this, with the low turnout continuing as the focus, I wonder if the word went around in the barrios and provinces of Venezuela that it was better to go to church last Sunday and invoke the gods of calm and peace.  President Maduro is certainly wily enough to get his own people to standdown (a la Bharrat Jagdeo and Exxon), having recognized the way the winds were blowing, and the heat that they packed.  He definitely has that kind of control over the Bolivarian masses, and the other lavish beneficiaries of his socialist generosity.  If all of this holds up, the only real question left is how long he is going to be allowed to remain as president, a man of standing.  That is his problem.  My problem is that a new Venezuelan leader may turnout to be even more hostile that this failed president.  One opposition big chief is on record of clearing Essequibo of all Guyanese.  The next thought is if that is so, then the future prospects of Guyanese living in Venezuela may be a little shakier than they are today.

I am not done yet, as there are still a few more ideas left.  First, though the reported current state of ‘high alert’ could be eased by a few degrees, Guyana simply cannot afford to relax their guard (ever) when there are neighbors like the ones next door, and given the poisons they house in their hearts.  About our wealth.  About our land.  About our Essequibo.  Like the song says, ‘they smile in your face, and all the time they want to take your place.’  As an aside, since the PPP Government has identified me as a Venezuelan, I am planning to get a national voter card under that provision so lovingly developed by Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo.  In that way, I get to vote twice.  Sorry, but the politics intruded in a moment of casualness.