OPINION: The enemy must never be trusted

Last Updated on Wednesday, 29 November 2023, 12:58 by Denis Chabrol

By Dr. Randy Persaud, Professor Emeritus

For those of us who have studied international affairs extensively, and who have focused on war, there are a few core principles that must always be followed. Here are the core principles as they apply to the current Guyana-Venezuela situation.

Firstly, always take threats to your national security, and especially your territorial integrity, seriously. Venezuelan leaders have repeatedly stated that they intend to get Essequibo. Their intention is clear, and Maduro has brooked no reservations in explicitly stating his claims, bogus though they might be. The wise thing for the threatened state to do is to take the threat seriously.

Secondly, a threatened state (in this case Guyana) should never accept assurance from the state that is issuing the threats (in this case Venezuela). To do so is not only naive, but outright dangerous. Throughout history, peace-loving people have been repeatedly shocked with violent betrayal when the trust they put in the words of an adversary came to nothing. Reassurance should be treated as nothing other than a dimension of the enemy’s psychological operations. Just think of the absurdity of accepting assurance of no harm from the very entity that is threatening to harm you.

Thirdly, while moral suasion is nice, it matters little in questions of war and peace. I know that Caribbean states have urged Venezuela to stand down. Some naive opinion makers believe that the little Caribbean states have influenced Maduro into pulling back his forces from forward positions. If you believe that, you also probably believe that Santa Claus is real. Gaza has proven beyond any doubt that moral standards, whatever those may be, are irrelevant when a powerful state wants to inflict harm. It is sad, but where international politics are concerned, might makes right.

Fourthly, ideology is useless in understanding what states do in their foreign policy behavior. Naïve socialists, for instance, think that so-called ‘progressive’ states have, or must, have ‘progressive’ foreign policies. That is ‘neither here nor there.’ Venezuela is a self-proclaimed socialist state, but its foreign policy conduct is purely selfish, based as it were on its national interests, and an absurd interpretation of the 1899 Arbitral Award. Nicaragua, once the darling of the left under Ortega, is now a big-time supporter of Maduro. India, the land of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru is among the strongest backers of the war on Gaza. For Modi, both Gandhi’s Ahisma and Nehru’s Non-Alignment are irrelevant. Cuba has thousands of personnel in Venezuela, and not all of whom are civilians.

Fifthly, in geopolitical relations, past behavior is no guarantee of future conduct. Never forget that the USSR fought with the Western Allies against Germany and lost the most people in World War II. Yet, immediately after the war, the USSR became the number one enemy, and Germany became the friend.

Guyana, the United States, and the U.K, as well as Canada and Western Europe have a lot in common. While Guyana’s democracy needs deepening and widening, it has managed to stay afloat on the democratic trajectory since 1992. This is despite a massive threat in 2020. The Western states contributed mightily to saving our democracy. Guyana’s economic trajectory is also very much coordinated with the political economy of Western liberal-democratic capitalism. We also have shared interests in oil and gas development, climate change policies, and a wide range of interlocking commitments in human security and human development.

These shared values and interests with friends and partners in the West, set us apart from Venezuela in ways that are definitive and unshakable. Venezuela is an authoritarian populist state where all public institutions have been captured by a self-possessing leader, namely Nicholás Maduro. This same Maduro has imprisoned opponents, trashed the judiciary, pulverized private businesses, and destroyed the economy with reckless abandon. President Maduro’s policies have resulted in the largest mass self-expulsion of people in the history of modern Latin America. President Maduro’s geopolitical brinkmanship has also upended President Chavez’s Bolivarian commitment to regional peace.

These considerations bring me to my sixth and ultimate point. Territorial integrity is an ontological priority in the modern states’ system. All foreign policy resources and energies should be dedicated to this. In our own case, we are well poised to benefit from the protection of more powerful friends and partners in the international system. This is based on the abiding shared values and interests we have with North America, the EU, and the United Kingdom.

In international politics, you should only trust friends, partners, and allies. Never trust any state that has threatened to annex a portion of your territory. Never trust a state that behaves like an enemy. And always take threats seriously!

Dr. Randy Persaud is Adviser in the Office of the President, Guyana. Dr. Persaud is former Assistant Director, Centre for International Security Studies, York University, Toronto, and former Interim Director of the Council of the Americas, American University, Washington DC.