Limiting water use likely if no yearend rain, says top weather expert

Last Updated on Tuesday, 22 September 2026, 21:48 by Written By Denis Chabrol

Guyanese might have to brace themselves for severe water shortage if the El Nino drought continues through December and early January and there is no rainfall, the Ministry of Agriculture’s Chief Hydrometeorologist Dr Garvin Cummings said Tuesday.

He told the 21st National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) held at the Herdmanston Lodge, Queenstown, Georgetown that despite the hot weather, there was currently good water supply. He said forecasters were paying keen attention to whether there would be rainfall at year-end to replenish the conservancies to the full supply level. “If there is no rainfall, then those levels are going to continue to fall and that’s where water rationing becomes a real thing,” he said.

Dr Cummings detailed that the East Demerara Water Conservancy (EDWC) was at 58 Georgetown Datum in early August but the level has since dropped to 56. He cautioned that if it drops further to 55, 54 GD or lower that would be a “major concern.” On the other hand, the Chief Hydrometeorologist said if there was “good rainfall” at year-end, the water levels would again increase to 56 or 57 GD and so residents would be able to survive until the next major rainfall. “ If that doesn’t happen, then you’re thinking about how do we manage until the next rainy season,” he added.

The top climate and weather official said the National Drainage and Irrigation Authority (NDIA) had already begun deploying pumps across the coast to pump water into farming communities. He also said black tanks were being provided to a number of other areas. Dr Cummings said policymakers and technical experts were aware of the local weather forecast and taking action to minimise the drought impact on agriculture..

He restated that falling river levels would affect maritime transportation of food, medical supplies, and felled logs in hinterland communities. “We want to prepare, we’re hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. (1:02:20) If the rains are not going to come, then water transport becomes an issue,” he said. In some instances, he said he resort to the expensive option of air transportation which would drive up the cost of basic items.

Specialist Hydrometeorologist, Komalchand Dhiram told the NCOF that there was more than an 85 percent chance that Guyana would have a  strong El Nino. “We are now forecasting higher probability for below normal. so there is no chance in our model that we’re going to experience wetter condition or even normal condition,” he also said.

He also predicted that there would be 50 to 60 hot spell days, a clear indication of the strengthening El Nino. Though some showers are expected, Mr Dhiram the heat would continue until March leading to above normal daytime and nighttime temperatures. 

Turning his attention to electricity supply, he said the hydropower stations in the Rupununi and Paramakatoi could be subjected to additional pressure because of increased electricity demand for cooling.