OPINION: Tariff -a sticky one, very tricky too

Last Updated on Sunday, 6 April 2025, 22:16 by Writer

By GHK Lall

Tariffs. Trump tariffs, to be precise. The Irfaan Ali government says it is engaging. The opposition AFC is saying that a national response is vital. I am saying that this development involving tariffs is frightening.

Eight percent would have been a sharp blow. Half of that 38% tariff unleashed against Guyana would be one that is crippling. Hence, 38% possess all the elements of a monstrous terror dumped on Guyana, the heaviest of low blows. Guyana imports a bunch of stuff from the US, as much as 90% of some of its goods, which caught me off guard. It doesn’t feel right. The mere thought of the damage waiting to take shape is daunting. I am thinking of the effect on Guyana’s exporters to the US. Prices will have to be cut to be competitive in the US market. That would dent the profits of local exporters, maybe even make some of them unprofitable. The cascading effect could be horrific, because it throws sand in Guyana’s economic engine revving at increasing speeds.

Of particular note is that Guyana stands out like a deformity in comparison to the tariffs levied on other countries in the region. The highest percentage. What happened to the special friendship between the US and Guyana that both President Ali and Secretary Rubio spoke so highly about? To which dark, forgotten corner was that so swiftly pushed? The Guyana Government could not have been more open, more giving, to America, as was stated and restated during the neon glow of Secretary Rubio’s visit. A visit from a US Secretary of State has its prestige about it and, also, its discussions leading to the understandings sealed. That was my expectation, until this tariff terror was let loose, like some angry and hungry dog, to mangle and devour all in front of it. If this 38% tariff stays as is, or too close to that number, let there be no mistake about it, Guyana will be severely mangled.

I take another tack. In my book, this 38% tariff is the equivalent of sanctions being applied on this country. Guyana is not doing anything that goes against the interests of America. Not one thing that would upset its bag. But to return to the warmth of the Ali and Rubio gatherings, friends do not do such things to friends. Not by means of a 38% tariff lash to the face. Is there another way to describe that 38% tariff, especially given the heartening aftermath of the Ali-Rubio union?

The Americans are talking about the existence of trade barriers erected by Guyana. What trade barriers that limit, or cost, Uncle Sam business? Guyana imports much of its machinery from the East, not the US. Whatever the trade barriers on this side of the Atlantic, Guyana is ready, will be zealous, in pulling them down. I can guarantee that one. If only to appease the angry deity in the White House. If only to furnish real proof that the preferential treatment of which His Excellency spoke so well about in his meeting with Marco Rubio. If only to level what I believe is more in the nature of a playing field imagined by the Americans. On the other hand, if the red tape of Guyana’s cumbersome bureaucracy (and its corruptions) is what is meant by trade barriers, that one I can understand. Frankly, my calculation was that if there was going to be any tariff imposed on Guyana (the remotest of remote possibilities), then it was going to be more on the nuisance side. That is, something that has to be lived with, nothing that could not be managed fairly comfortably.

Uncritically, I am at a loss to ascertain how any level of tariff levied on Guyana is going to help Make America Great Again. However, 38% does have many teeth to it, which prompts the question about what the true objectives of America in this instance are. If one of those is to bring Guyana to its knees, then there is a solid chance of success. Perhaps, it is to render this country even more subservient to American dictates, and then make no bones about running all over it. An unlikely scenario is that the tariff could have the unintended effect of pushing the Government of Guyana to reconsider its weakening China posture. Remember I said unlikely, and for good reason. There is the power equation to be considered in this 2025 elections year. The US holds all the cards, and the PPP Government is too far gone to turn back now. So, what are the choices before the government? Make a good show of putting up a spirited front against this American tariff, stands as one. It is good for public consumption. Or throw in the towel, so as not to get on the wrong side of the White House, while feigning a fight.

The Ali-Jagdeo regime has gotten better at these masquerades. Donald Trump just showed his hand. It is a mailed fist. Will he be open to reason, given the Guyana-America chamber of shared interests for the area, and the understandings that come from those? Or, will he hold that 38% tariff line on Guyana, and bend this country to his will? I predict that it will be a little bit of both. How I see it, call it.