Non-oil economy in shambles; too much reliance on oil for economic growth- APNU

Last Updated on Friday, 18 September 2026, 19:30 by Written By Denis Chabrol

The opposition A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) on Friday said  government needed to come clean about its overall economic growth projections for 2026

Referring to the Finance Ministry’s recently-released mid-year economic report, APNU said “the scale of these downward revisions demands scrutiny of the assumptions behind Budget 2026.”

APNU noted that the full-year non-oil growth forecast has been cut from 10.8% to 10.2%; agriculture, forestry and fishing have been revised from 7.6% to 2.9%, other crops from 9.8% to 2.1%, and sugar from 67.9% to 18.1%. The manufacturing growth forecast has been reduced from 12.9% to 10.7%, and bauxite from 19.3% to 10.2%.

“These are reduced growth projections, not cuts to annual spending allocations,” APNU said.

According to a prepared text read by APNU parliamentary leader, Dr Terrence Campbell, though overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was increased from 16.2% to 20.8%, and construction from 25.4% to 27.6%, the People’s Progressive Party Civic (PPPC)-led administration should not hide the less than satisfactory performance behind higher overall economic growth on account of the oil sector. “Stronger oil-led growth must not obscure weaker expectations for important non-oil activities. Government owes Parliament and citizens an explanation of the missed assumptions, implementation constraints and corrective actions, with deadlines,” he said.

Dr Campbell said the economy expanded by 33.3% in the first half of 2026, but petroleum, gas and support services accounted for 78.9% of real GDP, up from 74.4% in the same period of 2025. He further related that crude oil generated 92.9% of merchandise export earnings. “The challenge is not that Guyana has oil; it is that our economic base is becoming more concentrated. These are measures of output and exports, not income automatically available to households or the Treasury,” he said.

He said most troubling, agriculture, forestry and fishing contracted by 0.5%, with other crops down 6.4%. Cole (such as broccoli-cabbage, cauliflower, kale)  crops fell 19.1%, spices 17.7%, beans and cereals 5.7%, and vegetables 4.2%. He also noted that gains in sugar, rice, livestock, forestry and fishing did not prevent the combined sector’s decline. “This is an urgent food-production warning, not an incidental statistic,” said Dr Campbell, a city businessman for several decades.

The leader of the APNU parliamentary team dismissed the mid-year economic report attributing crop losses to prolonged, above-normal rainfall and warns of El Niño heat stress later in the year. “Weather is an explanation; it is not a substitute for preparedness. Government must show how its investments protect farms against both flooding and drought,” he said.

Similarly, he said the report lists drainage, shade-house and farmer-support interventions. “APNU questions whether their scale, timing and maintenance are adequate. We call for funded, region-specific recovery plans covering reliable drainage and irrigation, water storage, extension services, affordable credit, cold storage, agro-processing and market access, with public targets for production, farmer earnings and food affordability” he added.